A review of 2008

The little computer that could...

Perhaps the biggest consumer electronics success of 2008 is the rise of the "netbook", the small, cheap ultra-portable laptops that offer little in the way of memory or storage, but which provide a convenient, low-cost way of getting online wherever you are. Asus won plaudits for its Eee PC, which offered lots of great features and functionality for just £200, while Acer is the manufacturer who has shipped the most netbooks this year.

First "internet President"

Barack Obama's historic victory in this year's US Presidential elections was also a confirmation of the power of the internet. Obama's successful election campaign relied hugely on harnessing the power of social networking and new media sites, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, to help get the vote out. His campaign team used the web to help supporters organise and run local rallies and vote drives, and even developed an application for the Apple iPhone. President-Elect Obama has promised to use the internet to create a more transparent government, and to communicate his plans and policies more clearly to the electorate.

Smartphones get smarter

The roster of great mobile devices released this year reads like a who's-who of the great and good of the smartphone world. Consumers have been spoilt for choice, with seemingly every mobile phone maker churning out handsets to take on the iPhone 3G, Apple's second-generation mobile phone. Research in Motion launched its first touch-screen BlackBerry, the Storm, while Sony Ericsson's Xperia X1 demonstrated the power and promise of Windows' mobile platform. Google, too, got in on the act, with T-Mobile's G1 the first device to run its Android operating system, designed to bring the desktop computing experience to mobile devices. This new breed of smartphones share some common traits, including great, fast internet access, and the ability to access emails and social networking profiles on the move. Many also allow users to download extra software and applications to the device, in effect turning the whole thing into a pocket computer.

The rise of the ebook reader

Much as the music industry is slowly getting to grips with digital, so too is the publishing industry. This year saw ebook readers move from geek to mainstream. Amazon launched the Kindle in the US, while in the UK, Waterstones started to sell Sony's Reader. Other mobile devices, too, embraced the medium, with several apps available for the iPhone that turn the handset into an ebook reader, and even Nintendo announcing that DS users would soon be able to read classics published by HarperCollins on its device. In truth, though, sales of ebooks and ebook readers remain dwarfed by those of old-fashioned "proper" books, but 2008 has arguably seen some much-needed momentum build behind the ebook format.

Predictions for 2009

This is the year of Vista -- I mean Windows 7

Yes, it's real, and it's coming in 2009. Don't expect to hear a lot of Vista cheerleading going forward, other than Microsoft telling you how much better Windows 7 will be. Between Microsoft and all its partners, close to a billion dollars will be spent on beating the Windows 7 drum and trying to get the market beyond Vista and back to Windows at the same time. The good news for IT departments is that there won't be much of end-user demand for the new operating system, so they can take their time in deploying it.

PCs finally fragment as a platform

It was not that long ago that all PCs were created equal -- that is as beige boxes. Even Apple went through a beige-box period. If you wanted a workstation, you painted it black (or blue). If you wanted a server, you turned it on its side, and if you wanted a mobile PC, you slapped a handle on the top. But mature products fragment into smaller product categories, and PCs are no different. It just took a while, but it's happening at last. One size doesn't fit all. In fact, one size doesn't need to fit all. Netbooks will appeal to different user segments as will smart phones and, of course, traditional laptops and desktops. Expect a lot of device overlap and a lot of confusion about taxonomy.

Microsoft won't produce its own phone

Ever since the iPhone came out, folks have been predicting that Microsoft will abandon the Windows Mobile ecosystem and do its own device. The latest rumors have Microsoft doing this as early as January. It won't happen, I say. Microsoft's core business is still software, and its business model is licensing that software to others. It did nearly 18 million licenses last year, and that's where the focus is going to stay.

"Tweener" devices will have their hype and then die

With all the platform fragmentation, a lot of devices won't fit neatly into existing product categories. That's OK, but there are only so many devices that users will carry with them, and that magic number is three. Any device that doesn't map into users' device hierarchies isn't going to succeed. Fragmentation is good, but if a new device can't replace one or more existing devices, it won't succeed in the market. Call them Internet tablets or MIDs (mobile Internet devices), but a 'tweener device by any other name will still fail. Expect to see a lot of these in 2009, mostly dying a quick death in the market.

Apple becomes a business standard

It started with the iPhone and the ability for that device to work with Exchange and be managed centrally by the IT department. Expect that trend to continue in 2009 with the Macintosh and OS X. The shift to Intel has already given Apple users the ability to seamlessly run Windows on their machines. The next version of Mac OS X, Snow Leopard, promises even tighter native integration with corporate infrastructures. As more users become enamored of Apple products, expect both top-down and bottom-up pressure to grow for IT to make Apple products part of the corporate standard. IT is a service organization in the end, and the smart shops will listen to the desires of their users.